The repetition of exactly the same conditions will depend, of course, on the results of other races across the country. But the battle for control of the Senate is delicately balanced between both parties for now – and the idea of a Senate hanging in the balance after the November elections has some Georgia organizers dazed.
“No one wants the runoff. No one wants the runoff,” Sucary Johnson, chairman of the Clayton County Democratic Party, reiterated, emphasizing. “Because it is very difficult for people to come back, and at this point you are spending time and money to convince people to come back. And nobody wants to do that after November.”
The FiveThirtyEight’s Warnock-Walker Race Average Warnock shows by 3 points — the same margin the Democratic senator enjoyed in the most recent bi-state poll for the Atlanta Journal and University of Georgia constitution. Oliver had 3 percent support in this poll published at the end of July.
Warnock’s consistent advantage on the ballot came even when he was the Republican governor. Brian Kemp enjoyed a small victory over Democratic challenger Stacy Abrams in most polls. It’s a slice of the ticket split that reveals some of Walker’s annoyance among voters ready to cast GOP votes in the state’s other big competition.
If the Senate campaign is “a small race, and it’s just a couple of characters, I think Warnock could win,” said former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Georgia native who appeared with Walker at a campaign event last week in Alpharetta. Politico. “But if it’s a big race, and it’s because Warnock is part of 9 percent inflation and the highest gas price in history, and you can go down the list, I think Warnock loses.”
It’s those opposing, competing currents that bring the race so close – and with the race closer comes the chance of a run-off. And at this point, Democrats acknowledge, fatigue could become a factor as there have been near-constant political battles in Georgia over the past few years.
Nsé Ufot, CEO of Founded Abrams, said: The New Georgia Project, lists the challenges she and her voting rights organization are facing this year.
Cobb County Democratic chairwoman Jacqueline Pitadapore agreed that the party was facing enthusiasm and a lack of energy heading toward the midterm house. This race is about who is the best at mobilizing the grassroots and getting people to participate and vote. And I think the Republicans have a slight advantage in that… We’re seeing a lot of Republican enthusiasm similar to what the Democrats had in 2017. [after Donald Trump was first elected]. “
Pitadapur said she thinks people will still go to vote in November, but when it comes to getting volunteers to knock on doors, text and phone bank and do direct contact with voters, the enthusiasm is lower than it was four years ago. For example, Gwinnett County Democratic Party Chair Brenda Lopez Romero is leading an effort to knock on doors and set up media outreach in five different languages: English, Spanish, Vietnamese, Korean, and Chinese.
Republicans have their own hurdles to navigate. In Muscogee County, home to the city of Columbus, the party is working to overturn the second congressional district and increase its voting share in a strongly Democratic district. Muscogee County Republican Chairman Alton Russell is fighting fears among core Republicans that their votes are not important. Raised by former President Donald Trump’s insistent lies about voter fraud and the results of the 2020 election, it’s the same concerns that may have cost the Republican Party critical voter turnout in recent Senate runoffs.
“That’s a concern I have — about people who don’t vote because they have an opinion that everything is crooked, that Trump really won, that their votes don’t matter, that they’re not going to vote at all,” Russell said.
He added that there are several ways to engage Republican voters despite these concerns — including preparing Republicans to prepare to vote against Joe Biden in 2024. But some Republicans go crazy when they are encouraged to move forward and look forward to the next election, Russell continued.
As Warnock leads in the polls, no one in his campaign thinks the lead is finally coming on its own.
There will be polls in all directions throughout this campaign. Here’s what we know: This race is going to be close, which is why we can’t take anything for granted and are working hard every day to get Reverend Warnock re-elected,” Warnock Campaign Manager Quentin Foulkes said in a statement to POLITICO.
Walker’s campaign did not respond to comments. But Russell, the Muskogee County Republican Party chair, once again noted how important voter education will be over the next three months.
“In Georgia, in every county in Georgia, what will make a difference is the turnout,” he said. “If we go out, we will win. If we stay home, we won’t.”