A new Siena College poll shows Democratic Governor Kathy Hochhol with a 14-point lead over the Republican candidate, Rep. Lee Zeldin before November. 8 elections.
When asked who they would “vote today” with Hochhol and Zelden as their party’s candidates, 53% of respondents said they would vote conservative while 39% said they would vote for Zelden.
Another 7% said they “don’t know” or had no opinion and 2% said they would not vote for governor at all.
Fourteen weeks is a long time in politics, and we know that most voters don’t really start focusing on the election until after Labor Day. “However, Hochul has early – but certainly not intractable – progression,” said pollster Stephen Greenberg.
“Hochul dominates New York City, with a nearly 50-point lead, while Zeldin is three points ahead in both the northern and central suburbs,” Greenberg said.
Political experts say the path to a Zelden victory requires winning at least 30% of the vote in Democrat-dominated New York City, while winning significantly in the surrounding suburbs and north.
See the full results here:
A Siena poll showed the Long Island Republican Zelden ahead of Hochhol with suburban residents by 46% to 43% and by 48% to 45% among rural voters over Buffalonian Governor.
Hochul has the support of 70% of the hard-left Big Apple voters compared to Zeldin’s 21%.
The incumbent governor was ranked in each demographic category on the basis of race, age and income in the poll of 806 potential voters conducted from July 24 to July 28.
Black voters favor Hochul by a margin of 78% to 8%, but the poll showed she has a lead of just six and eight points between white and Latino voters.
Candidates are competing among voters between the ages of 35 and 54, with Hochul leading 46% to 43%. I advanced by 15 points among older voters and 35 points among voters under the age of 34.
Women favor Hochul by 26 points while Hochul and Zeldin have 46% support each among men.
A total of 31% of respondents had a positive view of Zeldin with 28% saying they had an unfavorable view while Hochul got positive marks from 46% of voters along with 41% who disagreed.
While 36% of New Yorkers think the Empire State is going in the right direction, only 19% say the same about the country — an all-time high that could help Republicans like the Zelden campaign on issues like historically high inflation.
New Yorkers are divided on Democratic President Joe Biden, who was rated as favorable or unfavorable by 46% of Siena poll respondents.
The poll results are similar to a separate poll released Tuesday morning by Emerson College Polling, which showed Hochul ahead by 16 points over Zeldin, with similar margins separating candidates in New York City and other areas of the state.
While Zeldin appears to be falling short of his electoral goals, he appears to be in a better position at this point in the race than other GOP candidates have recently.
A Siena poll in 2018 showed Dutch County Executive Mark Molinaro, a Republican, trailing by 22 points over the current Democratic governor. Andrew Cuomo weeks after they won the party primaries, held in September of that year.
While the Democrats have run the last four presidential elections, Zelden’s current 14-point deficit matches the closest Republicans in those races, when Andrew Cuomo defeated Rob Astorino by 54-40% in 2014. In August 2014, Cuomo led Astorino by 32 pt., 58-26%, Greenberg said in a press release.
But Zelden has ground to make up for if he wants to repeat the success of George Pataki, the last Republican to take over as governor.
Republican challenger George Pataki led the Democratic governor. Mario Cuomo by 3 points statewide — 11 points ahead of New York City — in the October 1994 New York Times/WCBS-TV News poll before Pataki’s surprise victory over the three-term incumbent in November.
The other GOP candidates on the state ticket in November 2022 appear to face even longer odds of Zeldin becoming the first Republican to win a statewide election since Pataki won his third term in office in 2002.
U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer and State Comptroller Thomas Dinapoli scored 21 points in their respective races against Republican candidate Joe Binion, former Newsmax host, and banker Paul Rodriguez, according to a Siena poll.
State Attorney General Leticia James has a 14-point lead over business attorney Michael Henry in her re-election bid.
Hochhol raised more than $34 million in her quest to become the first woman elected governor after taking over as a former governor last August. Andrew Cuomo who quit amidst many scandals.
Campaign financial disclosures submitted in mid-July show it had $11.7 million on hand to spend for the upcoming campaign compared to $1.6 million for Zeldin.
In recent months, it has campaigned intensely on abortion rights and gun control after controversial decisions by the US Supreme Court that could reduce the chances of Republicans in the Empire State in November.
“Although a small majority of Republicans support Dobbs’ decision, 89% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and at least 62% of voters from every region, age group, gender and race oppose it,” Greenberg said. A reference to the recent SCOTU decision on abortion.
He added about new state laws passed after another ruling repealing old New York rules regarding carrying concealed weapons.